UFC 112: Predictions

Much has been made of the potential for friction caused by the UFC’s debut in the United Arab Emirates, with many wondering if MMA will be accepted by what is widely seen as a more conservative culture than our own.

The truth is, though, that the people of Abu Dhabi are huge fight fans, who particularly enjoy grappling and their reaction is already guaranteed to be mostly welcoming, which contrasts starkly with the controversy the UFC created when it debuted in Germany and Australia, and will inevitably stir up in Vancouver at UFC 115.

Also, make no mistake, this trip to Abu Dhabi is not some isolated foray into an exotic setting. It represents the new reality of the UFC’s business model in this increasingly-globalized decade of professional sports.

Record:

After an unusually rough night at UFN 21: Florian vs. Gomi, my overall prediction record now stands at 176-98 (%64.2) and 24-6 (%80.0) in main events.

Ranked Fighters (USA TODAY/SBN Poll):

Anderson Silva (BRA, MW #1), BJ Penn (USA, LW #1), Demian Maia (BRA, MW # 6), Frankie Edgar (USA, LW #7), and Matt Hughes (USA, WW #8).

Event: UFC 112: Invincible
Location: Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.; Ferrari World Outdoor Stadium
Date: Saturday. April 10th, 2010
Time: Local: (U.A.E.) 9:00pm.
North America– PPV Live: 10:00am/PST (1:00pm/EST).
PPV Replay: 7:00pm/PST (10:00pm/EST).

Main Event:

185 lbs.: [-875] Anderson Silva vs. [+575] Demian Maia

For UFC Middleweight Championship

When MMA fans think of Anderson Silva (25-4, 10-0 UFC), the long list of his accomplishments instantly comes to mind: longest reigning champion in UFC history, longest winning streak in UFC history, finishes in nine of his ten UFC fights, frequently ranked as the best pound-4-pound fighter in the world, and so on. While fans may not be as familiar with Demian Maia (12-1, 6-1 UFC)’s resume, it is fairly impressive: five BJJ world titles, 2007 ADCC Champion at 87 Kg, undefeated in his first ten MMA matches, a record four “Submission of the Night” honours, eight submissions in just twelve victories, and so on.

This fight features very arguably MMA’s best striker against its best grappler, so, at its core, it’s very much an old-school styles clash with a decidedly modern twist. That is, even though both are well rounded, with Silva working tirelessly to sharpen his BJJ and Maia winning his last fight, against Dan Miller (11-3) at UFC 109, via superior striking, it remains pretty clear that Maia needs to get this fight to the ground. He has a chance of doing so, though, because Demian is highly skilled with wrestling throws, like the one he used to take down Chael Sonnen (24-10-1) at UFC 95, and Silva’s takedown defense is widely seen as the weakest aspect of his game.

Ultimately, however, this fight comes down to a few other factors. One is that Anderson Silva, a BJJ black belt in his own right, is comparatively better on the ground than Maia is on his feet, which means Anderson’s area of strength trumps Maia’s. Anderson should also have a significant size and strength advantage over Maia. Some point to the fact that Anderson has been susceptible to exotic submissions in the past, but the Ryo Chonan (17-10) loss was over five years ago now, and, besides, Maia has shown himself to be susceptible to strikes much more recently, in his twenty-one second loss to Nate Marquardt (29-9-2) at UFC 102.

You can intellectualize Maia’s chances all you like, and I actually believe he represents Anderson’s toughest style match-up since Dan Henderson (25-7) at UFC 82, but, with the way Silva has constantly found ways to win in the octagon over the last few years, it’s almost impossible not to pick “The Spider” again here. I expect Anderson will spend only a short amount of time on the ground, and that he will eventually catch Maia coming in with either his knees from clinch or one of his Matrix-stlye punches.

At these odds, however, I do not recommend a bet unless you like the idea of risking a mountain of cash to earn a mole-hill.

Anderson Silva by TKO, Rd. 2

Main Card:

155 lbs.: [-1100] BJ Penn vs. [+600] Frankie Edgar

This might be the most one-sided title fight in the oddsmakers books since Geroges St. Pierre vs. Matt Serra at UFC 67. That may sound like a not-so-subtle suggestion that Frankie Edgar (11-1, 6-1 UFC) can pull out a victory at UFC 112: Invincible, but I actually believe BJ Penn (15-5-1, 11-4-1 UFC) is as near to embodying the event’s subtitle as is possible at this point. GSP was beaten that night in Texas, in large part, because he took Serra lightly, but, with the way BJ Penn has been training lately, under-preparing is the last thing I would accuse him of in 2010.

Frankie Edgar has great boxing and might have a better chance of tagging Penn than just about any other lightweight in the world, but BJ’s granite chin means he can take one to give one all night if he has to. Edgar may have the wrestling to get BJ down at some point, but, in so doing, he’ll find himself in the guard of one of MMA’s best submission artists. A flyer bet on Edgar may make watching this fight more interesting, just don’t risk anything you’d be very upset to part with.

You might think, given the praise I just heaped on Penn, that I, like UFC President Dana White, want to see BJ move up to 170lbs permanently after this fight, but that’s not something I support in the least. Sure, a fight or two at 170lbs. might be interesting, but BJ’s 1-3 UFC record at welterweight should have taught us all long ago that he is a natural lightweight. If nobody in the UFC’s pool of lightweight contenders, which still hasn’t been exhausted, can beat Penn then the UFC needs to either look outside its MMA empire for a 155′er who can, or get a 170lb contender to drop down– Josh Koscheck (14-4) has even proposed doing this in the past.  If still no one beats him, then BJ Penn may forever be considered the greatest lightweight fighter of all time. Where’s the big problem with that?

Still not convinced the BJ should stay put? How about this– how could anyone take any of the UFC’s future lightweight champions seriously knowing they can’t trace the title’s lineage back to a fighter who beat Penn. In the short term, why would anyone care about the division’s next champion, when, while watching him win or defend the belt, we all knew that the victor could not reasonably claim to be the world’s best lightweight?

Penn by Submission [RNC], Rd. 4

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170 lbs.: [-360] Matt Hughes vs. [+280] Renzo Gracie

Former, longtime, UFC welterweight champion Matt Hughes (43-7, 16-5 UFC) has taken an unorthodox approach to the golden years of his storied career. Rather than making one last run at the top of the division, like so many prize fighters before him, he has initiated something of a victory tour by asking the UFC for only “interesting opponents,” which is a euphemism for “those with the best combination of being both beatable and marketable.” It’s hard to fault Hughes for his approach, which allows him to squeeze the most money out of a sport he helped to build, but he may have gotten more than he bargained for with Renzo Gracie (13-6-1, 0-0 UFC).

Not so much because Renzo has superior size, strength, or even necessarily better overall technique, but because Renzo appears to have superior motivation. He recently signed a six-fight contract, wants to fight the highest-caliber opposition available, is desperate to avenge both his cousin Royce Gracie (14-3-3)’s loss to Hughes at UFC 60 and his student Matt Serra (10-6)’s loss to Hughes at UFC 98, and will enjoy a supportive crowd in his second-home of Abu Dhabi. Renzo is also arguably the last remaining high-level fighter to have competed at the time of MMA inception in the early 1990′s, but is still in a position of needing to build a modern legacy. Of course, as tenacious as he may be, Gracie is also nearly forty-three, or over six years the elder of Matt Hughes.

I believe, given his grappling skills and unusually strong motivation, that Renzo may be less of an underdog than these lines suggest. Nevertheless, Hughes appears to have selected an appropriately “interesting” opponent here and should be able to use his sheer strength to muscle his way to victory. Again, I don’t like a bet on Hughes at these odds and would sooner suggest that cagey gamblers out there consider plunking a small sum down on Gracie.

Hughes by Unanimous Decision

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185 lbs.: [+155] Kendall Grove vs. [-185] Mark Munoz

Over the years, a Kendall Grove (11-6, 6-3 UFC) fight has proven to be a very difficult thing to predict. In his most recent fight, the 6’6″ Grove was being handled by three-time NCAA Div. 1 wrestling champion Jake Rosholt (7-2), before “The Spyda” locked up a fight ending triangle. As it stands now, the book on Grove is that he is vulnerable to power-punchers and solid wrestlers, but is always one small mistake, made by an opponent, away from ending a fight with his lanky-limbed jiu jitsu skills.

Mark Munoz (7-1, 2-1 UFC)’s skill-set seems custom-made to handle Grove. Just like Rosholt, Munoz holds an unquestionable wrestling advantage [2X All-American, NCAA Div. 1 champion 2001] over Grove, but Munoz also possesses respectable punching power [ 3 T(KO)'s in seven wins], and, thanks to his training at Brazil’s Black House, solid submissions defense. Munoz, who spent most of his MMA career competing at light heavyweight, should also have a strength advantage that will help keep him out of trouble.

I’ll take Munoz here, but I personally see too much potential for variance to recommend a bet.

Munoz by TKO, Rd. 1

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155 lbs.: (+135) Rafael dos Anjos vs. (-165) Terry Etim

I am pretty confident that the UK’s Terry Etim (14-2, 5-2 UFC) has this one locked up. Of course, that feeling should always be investigated closely, but let’s look at the facts. Terry lost two of his first three UFC fights because he was essentially thrown to the wolves. Since then, he has rattled off a four-fight winning streak during which he has looked better each time out and shown an impressive mix of devastating striking and his trademark slick submissions. His 6’2″ frame is, somehow, still very solid-looking at lightweight and will pose problems for anyone he meets in the octagon. What’s more he uses his length effectively both on the feet and on the ground.

His opponent, Rafael Dos Anjos (13-4), while certainly posing a credible threat, is a much smaller man at 5’7″ who is not known to have particularly good striking and whose greatest strength, BJJ, is nullified by Etim’s superior technique. That last point may even be moot since it’s unlikely that Dos Anjos can get Etim to the ground.

I believe this fight will help to make a star of Terry Etim, lining him up for a big-name opponent after a flashy, stand-up finish. I highly recommend a bet at these odds.

Terry Etim by KO [Head Kick], RD. 2

Under Card:

170 lbs.: [+125] Nick Osipczak  vs. [-155] Rick “The Horror” Story

Rick “The Horror” Story (9-3, 2-1 UFC) is more than just the owner of one of the best cage names in the sport, he’s also a powerful wrestler who tends to get the job done in brutal fashion. He should be able to do that here, even against the UK’s undefeated Nick Opsiczak (5-0, 2-0 UFC) who relies on his excellent finesse striking, but lacks the physical strength and one-shot power to take Story out.

A quick look at their records should tell anyone that Opsiczak has a chance and that Story can be beat, but, at this point, I do like Story to push his winning streak to three fights with a tidy decision. A mid-sized bet on “The Horror” makes enough sense to me.

Story by Unanimous Decision

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170 lbs.: [+210] John Gunderson vs. [-270] Paul Taylor

After some difficulty at welterweight, the UK’s favourite sprawl-n-brawler “Relentless” Paul Taylor (10-5-1, 3-4 UFC) is moving down to lightweight and, handily enough, walking right into what appears to be a set-up win for him. John Gunderson (22-7, 0-1 UFC) is decent from top-control, but lacks the wrestling to take this fight into his world. As long as Taylor handles the weight-cut well enough, he should be able to get the W here.

Even at these odds a bet on Taylor makes a good deal of sense, maybe as part of a multi-fight parlay.

Taylor by TKO, Rd. 2

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170 lbs.: [+140] DaMarques Johnson vs. [-170] Brad Blackburn

It is pretty clear that Brad Blackburn (15-10-1) is the superior technical striker in this match, but TUF 9 finalist DaMarques Johnson (10-7, 1-1 UFC) has superior reach and better submissions. Johnson is also coming off a win and, with a record like his, he knows he needs to continue winning to justify his spot in the UFC. I think Johnson has a decent chance of pulling off the upset, but not enough of one that I’m willing to pick him straight-up.

An underdog bet on Johnson makes some sense at these odds, but Blackburn’s expert counter-striking will, more than likely, be enough to find holes in Johnson’s defense, and, at the very least, help “Bad” Brad to win on points.

Blackburn by Unanimous Decision

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265 lbs.: [-250] Mostapha Al Turk vs. [+190] Jon Madsen

Few fighters can claim as rough an introduction to the octagon as the UK’s Mostapha Al Turk (6-5, 0-2 UFC) who now finally has a chance to prove he can compete against other mid-level heavyweights in this match against TUF 10 veteran Jon Madsen (4-0, 1-0 UFC). Really, these guys are pretty similar, but Madsen is the superior wrestler and that should be enough to carry the day as long as he avoids Al Turk’s finishing power on the feet.

Madsen by Unanimous Decision

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155 lbs.: [+250] Paul Kelly vs. [-325] Matt Veach

One of the more impressive physical specimens in the UFC’s lightweight division, Matt Veach (11-1, 1-1 UFC), who arguably stole a round from Frankie Edgar before gassing and tapping out at the TUF 10 Finale last December, is simply too good of a wrestler to fall prey to the gound’n'pound stylings of England’s Paul Kelly (9-2, 3-2 UFC). On the feet, Veach’s striking may not be all that pretty, but he hits much harder than Kelly and should be able to turn the Brit’s lights out in fairly short order.

Kelly was posterized by a Dennis Siver (15-7) spinning-back kick in his last fight at UFC 105, and things aren’t likely to end much better for him in the desert at UFC 112. I can fully endorse a bet on Veach here, especially one that is included in a parlay to maximize the benefit.

Veach by TKO [Punches], Rd. 1

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205 lbs.: [-625] Phil Davis  vs. [+425] Alexander Gustafsson

Neither Phil Davis (5-0, 1-0 UFC) nor Alexander Gustafsson (9-0, 1-0 UFC) has a single loss on his record, but Davis is being heavily favoured because his wrestling is incredibly strong, his striking is inexplicably advanced, and, besides, it was pretty much accepted long ago that he would become a light heavyweight contender in the UFC. That said, Gustafsson hits like a Mack truck, or whatever kind of big rig they use in Sweden, and has plenty of upside in his own right.

A flyer bet on Gustafsson at these wild odds could make things pretty interesting, but Davis looks poised to add the big Swede to his growing list of conquests.

Phil Davis by TKO, Rd. 3